I believe I am now prepared to concretely state my position on "The War on Terrorism". Not that I have not stated it before in bits and pieces but this is, I think, an overarching analysis of how we at least ought to look at these last few years. I wonder now what my time in Afghanistan and Iraq was really for other than to take care of the people that went with me.
To state my position, I must first establish a few truths. First, take a look at the history of the Middle East. Diverse ethnic, religious and cultural groups have always lived side-by-side but there has never been the kind of violent events that sort these things out. The Ottoman Empire kept everyone together, as much as it could, by allowing diversity - each culture kept its own religion, culture and even language. Before that there were other empires but never the sort of nation-building along historical, cultural and ethnic lines we saw in Europe. In Europe warfare sorted out the differences long ago and allowed for more or less herterogeneous nations (excepting the Balkans of course). I contend that this sort of violence is an important part of human history - peace can never truly be achieved until people groups sort things out. Various empires in the Middle East kept things together for a time, but without their power and influence things fell apart.
Enter the British and the French at the end of WWI. Each of these "empires" (true still at the time) established zones of control over particular geographic areas, establishing mandates under the League of Nations. These essentially artificially drawn lines on a map delineating what would eventually become nation-states in the region is the basis for the current political organization of the area. Neither thought nor concern was given to the various cultural, religious or ethnic make up of the soon-to-be nations. In fact what the British and the French drew on a map were not nations at all in the traditional sense of the word - they defined arbitrary political boundaries - they gerrymandered the Middle East. When these "nations" became independent they remained cohesive only through strong and repressive central governments - dictators or kings.
Fast forward to the fall of the Soviet Union - the West no longer saw the need to court dictators and in fact all of a sudden was struck by a sense of morality in relation to their former friends. Fast forward again to 2003 and our leaders now think the answer to all of the problems in the Middle East is to eliminate the dictators that kept false nations together and to replace them with democracies.
Lets' back up to 1990 - Osama Bin Laden and the MAK had just assisted in the defeat of one of the world's remaining empires- the Soviets. Bin Laden - a product of a long evolutionary ideological chain of development beginning with Sayyed Qutb, progressing to the Muslim Brotherhood and then the Egyptian Islamic Jihad to Azzam and Zarwhari - had long railed against the secular slant of the Saudi monarchy. When US and coalition troops occupied the Kingdom, home of Islam's two holiest cities, Bin Laden began to see the "far enemy" as the one that must be defeated first.
In 1996 al Qaeda stated its intent to wage war against the United States and allies. In 1998 the group and its allies in the World Islamic Front for Jihad against the Jews and Crusaders essentially declared war.
Let's stop there and examine what was occurring on our side of the water at the same time. In 1993 and again in 1996 Samuel Huntington wrote what must be considered the cornerstone theory of US engagement in the Middle East in Clash of Civilizations. The major flaw of Huntington's work is that he lumps the world into seven major groups and assumes that these groups are heterogeneous enough to coalesce around common ideals and concepts - enough so to make conflict between these various civilizations inevitable. Notwithstanding the fact that Huntington was wrong on this point it is more important to realize than many people in power believe his theories - aka neocons and their various supporters.
Back in the Middle East Bin Laden and al Qaeda would agree with Huntington in his theory. This group looked across Muslim lands and believed that two reasons existed for strife. First, foreign influence, specifically Western influence. Second, a perversion of Islam over the centuries from the perfect form that existed during the time of the prophet. Bin Laden saw the solution to all of this as the reestablishment of the caliphate, expulsion of Western influence and an elimination of corruption within Islam. In one sense this puts Huntington, Bush, Rice and Bin Laden in agreement - they all see a clash of civilizations as inevitable and are willing to actually cause it.
Of course we all know, because we were told repeatedly, that al Qaeda carried out attacks on US embassies in Africa, attacked the U.S.S. Cole, planned and executed 9/11 and the 7/7 attacks. What does not get as much attention is the fact that in 2004, al Qaeda offered a truce to Europe if they would withdraw from the Middle East and in October of that year, just before the election, appealed to the American population to change the course.
All of the above is historical fact but what does it mean? Why has our government told us repeatedly that another terrorist strike is inevitable, yet none have occurred in the US since 2001. The 7/7 2005 attacks could be seen as a direct response to Britain's refusal of the 2004 offer of truce. If al Qaeda is as we have been told, a massive global network of terrorist bent on destroying the US why have their attacks against the US stopped? More importantly what does this mean for the supposed "War on Terror"?
Here is my theory and it is simple. Bin Laden was impressed by his experience in Afghanistan. A group of Jihadist warriors were able to stop and defeat one of the world's great powers on their own terms in their own land. Bin Laden always favored replacing secular regimes in the Middle East, just as the Islamic Jihad before him, but the reality is that this is a difficult proposition in repressive countries. The Egyptian experience clearly taught that, and in Saudi Arabia it was even more difficult. Al Qaeda needed a war with the west on their own terms, in Muslim lands. The attacks in the late 1990's and in 2001 were merely an attempt to force that circumstance.
I am not suggesting that Bin Laden knew full-well that the US would actually put ground troops into Afghanistan nor did he know for certain that the US would invade Iraq. I suspect the latter was merely a double bonus for their plan, a success beyond their wildest imaginations. It is likely that al Qaeda expected the usual response to 9/11, missile strikes and covert teams of assassins. It is also likely that their plans included more attacks like 9/11 until one of two things occurred. 1) the West abandoned Muslim lands, leaving Jihadist and Islamist free to topple secular regimes; or 2) the West committed to battle in terms favorable to the Islamist.
In retrospect and with more complete information available to us now, related to the evolutionary process in which al Qaeda’s ideology developed and a more complete understanding of their strategy, clearly shows us one thing. Al Qaeda’s overall strategy was masterful. Bin Laden can claim the moral high ground in much of the Muslim world by demonstrating that he is conducting a just war – al Qaeda declared war in 1996 and did so clearly in 1998. The group can claim, and be believed by some, that the attacks in the late 1990’s and in 2001 were a direct response to earlier warnings. Al Qaeda played the role of the statesman in 2004, offering a truce and appealing to end the war. These offers did not go unnoticed by many Muslims. Finally, al Qaeda has continually claimed that the West’s actions are that of crusaders – the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq add credence to that claim. They have invited the world’s powers to battle on their own turf, on their own terms. Taken in total this was all part of a brilliant grand strategy (compare that to the best we can come up with; “stay the course” and “surge”). Say what you will about the motivations and ideology of these people, they are certainly no slackers in terms of strategic thought. Clearly Bin Laden understands 4GW at the tactical and strategic level.
Current US stratagy cannot succeed in the Middle East (Afghanistan or Iraq) in terms that nation-states historically understand. In the end our policy will invariably turn to something more understandable, supporting a regime that can exercise power - democracy and all those touchy-feel-good notions be damned. We will declare victory and believe this conflict to be ended.
The reality will be quite different. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan created thousands of ideologically pure Jihadist warriors. It created families all over the world with brothers, cousins and sons that were heroes. Our invasion of that country and Iraq has provided the opportunity for thousands more to answer the call of Sayyed Qutb's version of the lesser Jihad.
When we declare victory, after having spent billions from the treasury and spilt our own blood, the ideological foundations of al Qaeda will remain. Their justifications and motivations will remain. Finally they will still have a valid model for engaging the West at their disposal - poke the pit bull with sticks until it comes into your yard.
The US has given legitimacy and authority to the cause of al Qaeda where none would have existed otherwise. In our own land we have created an entire new layer of bureaucracy -DHS- and enacted laws that restrict our own freedom. Our government "leaders" speak of al Qaeda as if they were a peer-competitor nation with the capability of actually destroying us. We invaded a Muslim nation based upon false information and set about establishing a Western style government - adding credence to al Qaeda's claim that we are crusaders.
Essentially our government has acted with as much ideological zeal as al Qaeda- borne from an equally misplaced ideology, only we have been more inept in our actions. We have played directly into the traps and strategies al Qaeda set for us.
We will someday declare a victory in Iraq and withdraw most of our troops - effectively ending Operation Provide Targets. The government we leave will not be truly democratic - for democracies simply cannot work where the gulf between the minority and majority is so great. We will leave a government no so much less tyrannical than the one toppled - and it will be viewed as a Western creation.
What will have changed? We will have spent billions of dollars, created enemies and potential enemies among the millions that have suffered as a result of these wars. Al Qaeda or some follow-on group will still exist, the ideology with its motivations, aims and objectives will still live. Undoubtedly as US troops begin to come home plots will be made and plans put in place to carry the war back to our shores- this will no doubt continue until we allow the people of Middle East to solve their own problems, stop supporting false nations and their regimes and essentially mind our own business - or until some future fool invades another Muslim country trying to root out an ideology. Al Qaeda could care less if we are immoral, greedy or any other term one might apply. They are concerned that we are there. Nothing we can do except untangle ourselves from this foreign mess and attend to important matters such as closing down the borders back home to illegals and making it harder for would-be terrorist to get in can in any way change any of this.
Labels: Afghanistan, bad ideology, El Cid, International, Interventionism, Iraq
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